The two challenges ahead
Everyone, it turns out, was surprised by Sunday’s election result. Even the most optimistic New Democracy supporters could not have expected such a victory for Kyriakos Mitsotakis. As for Alexis Tsipras’ fans, not a one probably believed leftist SYRIZA would lose a third of its voters. And PASOK not only stayed the course, but may even be looking at an unexpected comeback and certainly at having more influence over political developments.
By increasing his popularity compared to 2019, Mitsotakis has become the second prime minister since the restoration of democracy – after Kostas Simitis in 2000 – who has seen his popularity increase (by a significant 2% too), instead of wane after a full term in office. The challenge for him now is to stay away from committing the cardinal sin of every prime minister since 1974 who won a second term, which is the sin of arrogance deriving from power. He will have to demonstrate this now, when he’s asked why he believes that New Democracy should have a clear majority in Parliament again. The challenges of governance will be huge, so he will have to demonstrate whether he will remain smugly in the position of a prime minister with 160 MPs or open up to new ideas and new faces.
In the long term, the other big challenge that lies ahead – and may even be regarded as more important – concerns the future of the center-left, as an alternative to a center-right government. Given Sunday’s results, SYRIZA is no longer regarded by voters as such. Without a convincing program, with nothing but generalizations and a hostility that only appealed to a handful of fanatic supporters, Tsipras not only failed to rally the center and the left, he also failed to hold on to voters who had trusted him during the crisis. In this sense, PASOK’s new popularity is threatening his dominance in the anti-right camp and possibly heralding a return to the post-Metapolitefsi normal of two parties – New Democracy and PASOK – dominating the political scene.
In the month up to the second round of voting, the protagonists of Greece’s political stage will have to show whether they understand that the country has turned a page.
Nikos Alivizatos is a professor emeritus of constitutional law at Athens University.
