Buying time with talks
The local elections in Turkey – which did not go very well at all for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – provided a momentary escape from the grim domestic quagmire Greece is sinking into, with no end yet in sight of the present crisis.
On the bilateral front, numerous opinions and assessments were published about the potential consequences of Erdogan’s defeat on the ongoing Greek-Turkish dialogue. Concerns were also expressed that the Turkish president may go back to adopting a hardline nationalist stance against Greece in a bid to rally voters.
The fact that for more than two centuries or so, our foreign policy has been centered on interpreting Turkey’s intentions toward Greece and on exploiting any souring of relations between Turkey and whichever great power is ruling the game at any given time, does not mean that this is also the case in Ankara, regardless of who is in power there.
For Ankara, the disputes with Greece are just another regional problem, whereas for Athens, the same issues have always taken on an existential dimension
Even though making predictions in politics is always risky, some analysts believe the result of the Turkish election bodes ill for Greece. The truth, though, is that the next really crucial contest there is four years away, in 2028, when the Turks elect a president.
Those four years are an enormous amount of time in politics, and especially so in a period of such incredible regional uncertainty, with the escalating Russia-Ukraine war and the very real risk of the Middle East conflict expanding.
Issues related to geography, centuries of history, the need to maintain a balance in a very – politically, religiously and culturally – diverse part of Europe do not, under any circumstances, negate the importance of the Greek-Turkish dialogue for Ankara.
Only that for Ankara, the disputes with Greece are just another regional problem, whereas for Athens, the same issues have always taken on an existential dimension – hence the eternal effort to muster Western support for Greece. And this is why the talks that are constantly being revived and broken off are simply an exercise in buying more time.
