Iran plays the N-card
The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program is substantially a product of US policy. Tehran’s anti-American hysteria is rooted in the 1950s coup in which the CIA overturned the democratically elected government and imposed the shah, who then wiped out any trace of political opposition, which eventually led to the Iranian revolution. Nevertheless, despite its aggressive rhetoric against Israel, Tehran has carefully avoided any opportunistic actions. Nor has it been involved in al Qaida-style Islamic extremism. In fact, during the West’s war on the Taliban, it took a constructive stance. That did not prevent Washington from including Iran in the so-called axis of evil. The American threats undermined moderates in Iran and consolidated the Iranian regime’s view that the best way to avert a Western attack is to play the nuclear card. According to Western reports, Iran is far from being able to produce a nuclear bomb. It probably hopes that with the help of soaring oil prices it will be able to extract from Washington a pledge not to attack. Even if that is not the case, and Tehran goes the way of rank opportunism, the West must find a way of imposing credible international inspections to ensure that Iran’s nuclear capacity will only be used for peaceful purposes. The US has itself undermined the credibility of international inspections, as it often used inspections in Iraq to spy on Saddam’s regime. The UN must come up with guarantees to allay Iran’s justifiable doubts. Washington is trying to achieve its aim by diplomatic means. Its first goal is to get a Security Council vote for sanctions. This will be made easier by concerns about nuclear proliferation and the provocative rhetoric of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Even if diplomacy fails, the US’s imperial posturing means they will take up a challenge. This is why attacking Iran is on the cards, even if we’re still far from such a decision.
