The crisis is an opportunity
The Greek economy is entering a difficult phase, with no easy way out. It will grow by about 3 percent this year and below 2.5 percent in 2009. Unemployment will surpass 9 percent. The public deficit (3.1 percent last year) will remain above the crucial threshold, whatever the authorities might try. The state’s debts grow by 12 billion euros annually and will reach 254 billion this year. The transfer of wealth, via high oil prices and raw materials, to the countries of the East and South, has triggered fierce competition among countries as to which will retain, which will gain and which will lose part of the wealth that remains in the West. This comes at a time when the Greek state is semi-paralyzed, its entrepreneurs in trouble, its economy exhausted. If things do not change the «Barroso syndrome» (in which Portugal struggled along with minimal growth for seven years) is coming. Because the drivers of growth are disappearing: Consumer spending (which was largely based on borrowing) is rapidly weakening and productivity is falling. We need an unconventional plan to break loose from a model that has come to its natural end. Among 178 countries rated by the World Bank, Greece ranks 100th in terms of how business-friendly the country is, 152nd with regard to how easily one can start a business, 142nd as far as the ease with which salaried positions are offered, and 86th for the ease with which we pay taxes. Among the 20 European members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, we are third to last in terms of the state’s effectiveness and the quality of reforms. We’re in fourth to last place in terms of curbing corruption. This all has to change. The situation must be reversed. The crisis is also an opportunity to introduce reforms.
