Ankara has become a ‘questionable’ NATO ally, says US analyst
Turkey will start coming under pressure from the United States over its stance on the Middle East crisis very soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, who is senior vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, one of the most influential think-tanks in Washington.
Schanzer, who previously served as a counterterrorism analyst at the US Department of the Treasury, also believes that Hamas is about to become a major headache for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, arguing that “America has everything it needs to designate Turkey as a state sponsor of terrorism.”
Just recently members of Congress raised Turkey’s role in supporting Hamas operations, but it seems that this issue has not received adequate attention from successive US administrations. Why is that?
Turkey continues to enjoy a protected status in Washington due to its status as a NATO ally, and the perception that it could be part of the anti-Russia bloc. Its value as a NATO ally is questionable at best so long as it harbors terrorist groups like Hamas. And it is entirely unclear what Ankara is doing to effectively counter Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
Do you think that President Erdogan’s statement that Hamas is not a terrorist organization will lead to a change in sentiment in Washington?
Erdogan’s statement sparked outrage. He continues to issue statements that reflect poorly on him and his country’s policies. Members of Congress are angry. But how that is expressed in legislation remains to be seen.
Since you mentioned legislation, what measures can Washington employ to hold Turkey accountable for its involvement in facilitating Hamas activities?
I believe that sanctions can be imposed on specific individuals and entities in Turkey immediately. Much is known about the Hamas network that the Erdogan government allows to operate on Turkish soil. Beyond that, America has everything it needs to designate Turkey as a state sponsor of terrorism. Should Washington deem that move to be appropriate, the evidence is there. Turkey certainly meets the criteria. Finally, the US can begin to push NATO to create a mechanism for removing nations from NATO. This doesn’t mean that such a mechanism needs to be used right away. But Turkey needs to see the handwriting on the wall.
Can you explain Erdogan’s thinking and his calculations when he decides to attack Israel, the USA, and the West in general, but at the same time signs Sweden’s ratification protocol and sends it to the parliament? Is this a balancing act?
Erdogan continues to try to carve out an “independent” Turkish policy that does not put him squarely in the camp of the West or the Non-Aligned Movement. His policy can best be described as “neither here nor there.” The problem is that he has done so much to anger the West that he may soon find himself completely cut off from the alliances that have safeguarded Turkey’s interests for decades.
In light of all this, how do you see US-Turkey relations shaping, moving forward?
I think Turkey will feel the pressure from the United States in the weeks and perhaps months ahead. The Hamas problem will be a huge headache for Erdogan. But I suspect that he will find a way to make only the most minimal changes, and to enjoy continued support on Capitol Hill. The only way that changes is with game-changing measures from legislators, the White House, or the State Department.
Turning to the conflict in Israel, what is your assessment of the US role in the situation thus far, and why do Iran and its proxies appear undeterred by Washington’s military presence and increased force posture in the region?
I believe that the US has failed to convey the will to act for many years now. The power that America has brought into the theater is beyond question. The will to use it is another story. Iran and Hezbollah do not believe that the US will pull the trigger. And it is for this reason that the rockets continue to fly.
Are you concerned about the potential for the Israel conflict to escalate into a regional conflict that goes beyond Israel’s borders?
There is a very real possibility right now for a regional war. We are already seeing fighting in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank. Gaza is the only full-blown war. But Lebanon continues to witness skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah. Syrian jihadists aligned with Iran are firing rockets and Israel is responding in Syrian territory. And Israel continues to arrest and occasionally eliminate Hamas operatives in the West Bank. The region is already on fire. Whether it escalates from here remains to be seen.
