Geopolitical myths and realities in 2024
Robert Kaplan, the distinguished international relations expert, outlines the geopolitical developments that will dominate the new year, in an interview with Kathimerini.
Kaplan believes that the trumpeted Russian recovery on the Ukrainian front is illusory because Moscow is paying a heavy cost in human lives and resources and this may prove crucial in 2024. He also thinks that Israel, having completed the main thrust of its Gaza operation, will turn its attention to Iran and Hezbollah, since the ferocity of Hamas’ October 7 attack changed the Israelis’ calculus.
To Kaplan, Erdogan’s turnaround in his relations with Greece is not reliable and Greece will have to be patient with Turkey for some time to come. As for the scenario of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Kaplan explains why it would cause a historic change of direction in US foreign policy and ultimately increase global security risks.
Russia appears resilient in Ukraine and Western support is showing signs of fatigue. What should we expect in 2024?
Wars are essentially unpredictable. As resilient as Russia appears, the longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the weaker Russia becomes in the other parts of its empire: the Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia and the Russian Far East. This is because Russia is holding its own in Ukraine at great financial and human cost. Russia has lost tens of thousands of lives and tanks. Another year of fighting will drain it further. So I am not convinced, like others are, that Russia is really winning. Thus, 2024 could be a pivotal year in the history of the Russian Empire.
In the Middle East, it seems that we have avoided the worst-case scenario, which would be an extension of the war involving powers like Iran. However, there is no clear roadmap out of the crisis. A key question is what will be the next day’s regime in Gaza and whether this war brings a solution to the Middle East issue closer or pushes it further away. What is your opinion?
I am not convinced that a wider war in the Middle East has been averted. It is really a matter of timing. The very intimacy and ferocity of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th has likely changed Israeli calculus regarding Iran. At the moment, Israel has its hands full in Gaza. And the Americans have their hands full in the Red Sea with the Iranian-supported Houthis. But once the major fighting in Gaza is over, I would expect over the coming months and year-or-so for the Israelis to turn their attention to Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s missile system poses a dire threat to the population of northern Israel. That is untenable. Israel also may not be willing to countenance an Iranian nuclear weapons system forever. As for Gaza’s political future, all the alternatives are bad. The Palestinian political authority in the West Bank is weak, corrupt and hostile to Israel. Whoever does rule Gaza, the Israelis will maintain a strong security and intelligence system in place there.
Greece-Turkey relations are in a phase of relative normalization – until proven otherwise. What do you understand from Erdogan’s stance towards Greece and the West? A question is also whether Τurkey will receive the upgrade of F-16s.
There may be no leader now of a developed country whose foreign policy is so determined and calculated by domestic populist considerations as Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. His relative warming of ties with Greece and the West cannot be trusted, therefore. Greece has to survive Erdogan and hope for a truly democratic Turkey afterwards. Though over the past two decades Erdogan has done so much damage to Turkish institutions, he may leave a certain amount of chaos in his wake.
What would a Trump re-election mean for the US strategy in international affairs?
A Trump re-election would mean the end of strong American leadership of NATO and of the Ukraine war. It would switch the focus of American foreign policy firmly from Europe to China and Asia. The Israelis would have a freer hand in the Middle East. This would all be historic. It would be a much less stable, more risk-prone world.
