Hopes crisis won’t spread
After the shock of human life losses in Israel, the question is whether there is also a risk of a shock in the global economy. Economists are currently hesitant to give a definitive answer – for now, everyone agrees, the economic effects appear to be under control.
The issue is of course also of great interest to the Greek government, especially the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, which moves along the same line of analysis: relatively reassuring at the moment, but on the lookout for the future.
As Michael Arghyrou, president of the ministry’s Council of Economic Advisers, says, neither Israel nor Gaza “are part of the global supply chain, as were Russia and Ukraine, which directly affected global energy and food markets. If this conflict stays local, no major international consequences are foreseen. So far market behavior shows this positive scenario is the prevailing one.”
“The question is whether the conflict will evolve into a geopolitical crisis, heightening uncertainty, which could lead to a rise in oil prices and inflation, with consequent hikes in risk premiums and international interest rates. However, if the geopolitical crisis ends quickly, its effects will not last,” he notes.
