Recession forecasts worsen

Recession forecasts worsen

Official estimates about the depth of this year’s recession keep changing, for the worse.

When the Greek government discussed funding from the European Union’s emergency fund, back in April, it had presented an “optimistic” scenario of gross domestic product dropping 4.7% and in the worst case, a 7.9% slide.

Today, the optimistic scenario is no longer on the table and the once worst-case one is the one government ministers are hoping for.

Asked about the deficit in an interview with Mega TV on Wednesday, Alternate Finance Minister Theodoros Skylakakis said he does not see the recession straying far from the former worst-case scenario of 7.9%. But, for good measure, he added that he “hopes” the contraction will be “slightly smaller” than 10%.

In June, Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras had presented three different estimates for the recession in the central bank’s monetary policy report, ranging from 4.4% to 9.4%. In the same month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had foreseen the economy shrinking by 8% if there was no second wave of the pandemic and 9.8% if there was.

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