European elections: All winners, but no change
Two weeks before Greeks head to the ballots to vote for their representatives in the European Parliament, a reading of the polls suggests that several could claim to be winners the day after, without though any substantial changes on the political scene.
For ruling New Democracy polls indicate that it will match or even surpass its target, which was the electoral result of the 2019 European elections (33.12%), and stay well ahead of the second party.
“Although this figure is substantially lower than the 40.5% the center-right party won in last June’s national elections, [Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos] Mitsotakis has set the bar for next month’s vote at around 33%,” Wolfango Piccoli from Teneo Intelligence wrote in a note to clients.
“He argues that since his government is in its second term, carrying the wear-and-tear of five years in office, and Greek voters tend not to adhere so closely to party allegiances in the European elections, replicating the 2019 result could be considered an achievement.”
Main opposition SYRIZA looks set to keep second place, although it will likely fall short of the percentage it got in the 2019 European elections (23.75%) and perhaps even of the 17.83% of last year’s national elections.
Socialist PASOK, even though it was aspiring to emerge in second place, could also claim victory if it exceeds the percentage it got in the 2019 European elections (7.72%) and the percentage it got in last year’s national elections (11.84%).
The leader of the nationalist Greek Solution party, Kyriakos Velopoulos, can claim victory if he climbs into fourth place, as polls suggest, particularly if he manages to score double-digit percentage support, from 4.44% in June 2023.
“Mitsotakis has responded to the increase in support for the ultranationalists by including an ethnic Greek Albanian politician [Fredi Beleri] at the center of a diplomatic dispute between Athens and Tirana on ND’s list of candidates for the EP,” Piccoli said.
The New Left party can consider its first electoral battle successful, if it secures a seat in the European Parliament.
Despite the party leaders’ claims, the future for SYRIZA and PASOK, as well as that of the center-left generally, will likely come under scrutiny after June 9, given that neither party seems capable of posing a serious challenge to Mitsotakis and presenting itself as an alternative.
Greeks largely indifferent
For the moment, no particular discussion of alternative ideas for the European Union and Greece’s role in it has taken place.
According to a survey conducted by QED market researchers, some 42% of Greeks feel bored about the European elections and will go to vote as if they were running an errand, out of obligation.
Some 37% of those asked are considering voting for a different party to the one they voted for in the national election, while the majority – 55% – will vote for the same. But we haven’t yet decided next to whose name we will place our cross.
Surveys indicate that the Greeks’ main concern remains the cost of living. The government has rejected calls by the opposition to reduce indirect taxes, arguing that the cuts would create a hole in the public finances.
In a parliamentary debate on Friday, Mitsotakis stressed that fighting inflation stands as the government’s primary objective. He criticized the opposition’s proposals as unrealistic and said that the most sustainable solution involves bolstering available income through wage and pension hikes.
“Despite the inflation concerns, it currently seems that Mitsotakis will hold off any advances from the opposition, which have been unable to tap into voters’ concerns in any significant way,” Piccoli notes. “Given that ND is on course to gain a higher share of the vote than the next two parties combined, it leaves the opposition with little to cheer about.”
