The next steps after Erdogan’s visit
Greek-Turkish contacts will continue, but a breakthrough on contentious issues is unlikely
Both Greece and Turkey are looking beyond this week’s meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens.
While Erdogan and Mitsotakis will have their respective foreign ministers and their top diplomatic advisors at their meeting, the work over future contacts will be done by two deputy foreign ministers, Alexandra Papadopoulou for Greece and Burak Akcapar for Turkey.
It is unlikely that further talks in 2024 will lead to an agreement on the core differences between the two countries, which concern territorial, sea and air sovereignty and the delimitation of exclusive maritime zones.
Bilateral exploratory talks among second-tier officials have been frequent but do not lead to breakthroughs on major issues.
The last two rounds of such talks, the 63rd in Ankara in October 2021 and the 64th in Athens in February 2024, took place at a time of high tensions between Athens and Ankara. Officials did not touch the most contentious points but exchanged views on a range of subjects.
The talks were more like parallel monologues than the substantial ones that almost led to a breakthrough in the periods of 2022-3 and 2010-11.
Greek officials believe that Turkey is eager to continue the communication that was re-established in February 2023, shortly after Greek assistance following the destructive earthquakes in eastern Turkey, and accelerated in July, after the Mitsotakis-Erdogan meeting at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Continuation of contacts hinges on Erdogan’s willingness to continue keeping Greek-Turkish relations low-key. Many of Greece’s European Union partners are assuring Athens that this is so. But any offhand remark by Erdogan during his Athens visit, on the minority in Thrace, for example, or “militarized islands” or the “blue homeland” could upend the talks.
The fact that Erdogan has chosen not to visit Thrace, something pro-Turkish Muslim minority members there considered a certainty a few weeks ago, is considered a positive sign in Athens.
Greek officials believe that, after this week’s bilateral summit, a measured statement will be issued reflecting both countries’ willingness to continue smoothing their differences.
