A responsible narrative for foreign investors and market analysts
Credit rating agency operatives and market analysts are waiting for next year’s elections before assessing the overall economic environment in Greece. They have the same attitude with respect to their approach to upgrading the country to investment grade. As we move deeper into the pre-election period, Greece’s economic performance and prospects will inevitably become the focus of discussions and party rivalries on the domestic scene.
In terms of the foreign investors and analysts who are watching Greece’s progress, however, there is nothing to gain, certainly not for the country, but nor for governing New Democracy, by having government officials claim that a change in government would be catastrophic. There are many cases where politicians of all stripes have said one thing for the domestic audience and another for the international one. In this case it is the right thing to do as the rhetoric about how bad things will become if the opponent wins, although expected as part of the campaign domestically, will harm the country, without bringing any short term benefits to the government from investors.
The government obviously believes that a center-left administration would be a bad thing. It has every right to say so to the Greek public in order to score political points. But while this may be the expected way to go domestically, it should not be saying the same things to foreign audiences, because foreign investors making long-term business plans do not care who or which party is in power, but rather that there is stability so their investments can prosper in the long run.
If government ministers send the message that a change in administration would cause problems, investors simply will not carry on with their plans, and a postponement, or cancellation even, would be a direct hit most importantly to the country but also to the government itself.
New Democracy has every reason to showcase its pro-business policies to world market analysts and encourage all foreign interlocutors to come to Greece and invest. But it should also be sending the message that even if there is a change of government, their investment will be safe with the other two main parties that could in one way or another end up in power. After all, it is not unlikely that the conservatives will be cooperating with one of them in a coalition government.
Such positive messages of consistent stability regardless of who is in power will benefit, not hurt, ND, no matter how controversial this sounds.
It goes without saying that this tactic should be adopted not only by New Democracy now, but by any party in government in the future. If the fact that this is obviously the right thing for the country in the long term is not enough for certain cynics trapped in their microcosm, they should do it for their own party’s short-term benefit if nothing else.
