A valuable opportunity for diplomacy
The European Commission president and the prime ministers of Greece, Italy and Belgium are going to Egypt on Sunday to provide serious economic assistance and a support framework for this difficult time, but they will also try to fortify the Union against the fallout from the region’s troubles.
The war in Gaza, the civil war in Sudan, the drop in revenues from transit fees in the Suez Canal and from lower tourism, along with other problems, pose serious risks to the government of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and to the European Union. Any destabilization of Egypt would have disastrous consequences for the region, including a wave of refugees. Egypt already hosts close to 500,000 refugees from Sudan.
If Palestinians were to flee Gaza, this would put more pressure on the Egyptian government and would increase the number of refugees heading for Europe. This is why the Europeans want to avert the worst in Egypt and also to sign an agreement on managing refugees and migrants, such as those that it signed with Tunisia and Mauritania.
Greece faces an immediate challenge, as arrivals of people from Egypt have risen abruptly. In the past three months, some 1,500 arrived on the islands of Gavdos and Crete, exceeding the total for 2023. Most of them are young Egyptian men. This means that conditions in Egypt are already intolerable for many of its citizens.
They will be worse for refugees and immigrants. The EU hopes that the 7.4 billion euros that it is offering (in grants and loans by the end of 2027) will help the government handle the consequences of the region’s troubles. But money and signatures will not be enough. It will take greater diplomatic and military involvement by the Union to keep things in Gaza and the Red Sea from getting worse. Judging by the result, its efforts so far have not been good enough.
The warming ties between Turkey and Egypt have strengthened Ankara’s influence in Cairo and in Libya, thus complicating Greece’s relations with Egypt. However, the EU’s more direct involvement in Egypt provides Greece with additional – and very valuable – political weight.
