The Greek far-right – a rising threat in the EU election storm
As the EU election rapidly approaches, several pollsters indicate a notable surge in support for Greek Solution, with Kyriakos Velopoulos attracting voters from both Niki and Spartiates.
Far-right dynamics in Greece have been notably prominent since 2012, and the record-breaking percentage for the three parties observed in the 2023 election may persist into the EU election. However, the recent Tempe train crash presents another potential opportunity that could further boost support for Velopoulos.
On March 28, the leader of Greek Solution made a striking appearance in the Greek Parliament, delivering a passionate speech during the discussion of the no-confidence vote. His fervent address not only earned praise from far-right circles and media but also garnered strong acclaim from left-wing journalists.
Social media have been inundated with footage of his speech, while media aligned with Velopoulos have strategically promoted select segments, which have subsequently been featured on more mainstream outlets. This concerted effort has effectively amplified and publicized his appearance in the Greek Parliament.
It wasn’t just the emotionality conveyed in the speech, which underscored the leader’s personal loss in the train crash, but also the relentless critique aimed at PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Despite the government’s accusations against SYRIZA and PASOK of exploiting the train crash, it could ultimately be Velopoulos who benefits from the situation.
In contrast to the relatively quiet stance of the other far-right parties, Greek Solution has played a strategic role in the no-confidence vote. Velopoulos aligned himself with the left-wing bloc in their criticism of the government but refrained from backing the no-confidence motion itself. Instead, he distanced himself from the proceedings and utilized his speech as a platform to firmly oppose Mitsotakis, labeling him as the primary figure accountable for the alleged cover-up.
This signifies a notable change of tune within the Greek far-right, as Velopoulos’ surge in polls seems to be rooted in three pivotal developments: Spartans is undergoing internal dissolution, Niki has adopted a markedly subdued approach since securing its initial seats in the Greek Parliament, and perhaps most significantly, New Democracy is grappling with internal discord – a trend highlighted by veteran pollsters Metron Analysis and Marc in mid-March.
An in-depth examination of recent polls from the past month reveals Greek Solution trailing behind PASOK and SYRIZA in some instances by less than 3 percent. With no new polls published in recent weeks following the latest revelations concerning Tempe, it would not be surprising if Greek Solution continues to narrow the gap.
Moreover, another poll by OPEN in early March has revealed strong support for Greek Solution’s rhetoric, particularly concerning the party’s stance against the same-sex marriage bill, positioning it as the third most influential party behind New Democracy and SYRIZA.
A vital factor to consider is the evident methodological flaws of Greek pollsters, who have consistently underestimated the influence of the far-right over the past decade, with the exception of the July 2019 general election. Coupled with typically low and declining turnout, which has been a trend in European Parliament elections since 2009, Velopoulos stands to further benefit from a less cohesive left-wing bloc and a government facing criticism for its handling of Tempe.
Greek Solution appears to be gaining significant momentum among right-wing voters, a trend largely overlooked by the media and, notably, by the government, which continues to focus on attacking the left. Regardless of how well the party performs in the upcoming EU election, one could argue that less than five years after the electoral collapse of Golden Dawn, there is a noticeable resurgence within the far-right, characterized by a renewed vitality.
The party’s focus on the Tempe train crash seems to be strengthening Velopoulos’ position, as he temporarily adopts a more restrained approach within the Greek far-right, moderating overtly xenophobic and anti-migrant rhetoric. Through this adjustment, Velopoulos emerges as a strong figure, successfully consolidating power across different factions within the far-right spectrum, while simultaneously masking his views and causing damage to both New Democracy and the opposition.
Dr Georgios Samaras is an assistant professor of public policy at King’s College London
