Thinking in geopolitical terms

Where does Greece stand in geopolitical terms? There may be no easy answer, but it would be a good idea if some of the better minds of this country began to think about it because things may very well change, and dramatically too.

An attack by Israel against Iran before the US elections in November in order to trap President Barack Obama into supporting such a campaign cannot be ruled out.

Right now one of Greece?s biggest strategic allies is Israel, along with the lobbies it influences. The Israelis provide Greece with valuable help and vice versa, even if it is help that cannot always be made public. But it is a sign of maturity that the political establishment has played this game cleverly and has liberated itself from past taboos. After all, realism needs to be the guiding principle of the national interest.

The United States is also an important supporter of Greece and does not want to see it turn into a failed state. Washington is trying desperately to convince Berlin that beyond the fiscal data, there is also geopolitics. But the Americans do not have money to invest in Greece, so they apply some pressure to Berlin and try to keep the markets in check, but their room for maneuver is very restricted. Of course they could help in the maintenance and replacement of military equipment, as the Greek armed forces are cutting it very close to the bone.

The Germans, for their part, are beginning to see how dangerous it could be for a broken Greece to fall into the hands of Russian oligarchs and yanked out of European institutions. That this could happen is an argument that has been circulated in Berlin and could influence decisions, if of course Greece does not spin out of control this autumn.

What Athens needs to seriously think about is what it will do if Greece is kicked out of the eurozone and pushed out from under Europe?s protective umbrella. The American embrace is too far away and getting more distant, no one knows what a close alliance with Russia would really entail, and China is a huge emerging power that has been repeatedly disappointed by Greece?s inability to pull its socks up and make good on its international obligations.

The most realistic approach is true and tested, and it is that Greece belongs to the West but plays with everyone. There is also some comfort to be gained from the fact that Turkey has a lot on its plate right now and has no time for bothering with Greece.

Nevertheless, there is a lot we have to think about and decide on, but first we need to stand up and regain our confidence and credibility.

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