Concern over nationalists’ rise in North Macedonia
The resounding victory of North Macedonia’s conservative VMRO-DPMNE candidate Gordana Siljanovska (41.2% to 20.5%) over the country’s outgoing president Stevo Pendarovski, who is supported by the Socialist Party, in the first round of the presidential election elections is a very clear reflection of a general upward nationalist trend in the neighboring country.
Indicatively, one of the arguments used by Siljanovska, as well as VMRO-DPMNE President Hristijan Mickoski, during the campaign is the termination of the 2018 Prespes Agreement with Greece, while refusing to refer to their country as “North Macedonia,” insisting on “Macedonia.”
The second round of elections will be held on May 8, coinciding with parliamentary elections. As always in the elections in North Macedonia, an influential role will be played by the Albanian parties and specifically the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) of the current Minister of Foreign Affairs Bujar Osmani, who came third in the first round of the presidential elections (13.73%) and the Alliance for Albanians party of Arben Taravari (9.47%).
The growing possibility of the rise of nationalists in Skopje has not been lost on Athens for some time now.
VMRO’s threats of non-implementation of the Prespes Agreement are largely empty of content, as Skopje’s withdrawal from it would have disastrous consequences for the country’s international standing.
However, aggressive rhetoric from the new political and state leadership in North Macedonia could lead to political friction with Athens.
Analysts experienced in Balkan affairs insist that Greece does not need to follow a confrontational logic, as a possible shake-up of the Prespes Agreement issue, even in a phase during which Skopje is facing very serious problems with Bulgaria over identity issues, would trigger reactions at the EU level as well.
Nonetheless, in the case Siljanovska is nominated on May 8, the public reference to “Macedonia” would be a violation of what for Athens is one of the most fundamental elements of the Prespa Agreement – i.e. the geographical identification of the country.
