Goldman Sachs anticipates more takings for Greek banks
Goldman Sachs expects Greek banks to show strong results in the third quarter of the year as well, following the trend of the second quarter, with further strengthening of net interest income, which will be supported by the 50-basis point increase in interest rates, to which it is estimated that the European Central Bank will have progressed in the specific period.
Subsequently, and as interest rates have peaked now, non-revenue-based factors are expected to affect the outlook of each individual bank.
However, as GS points out, in the short term it expects banks with a relatively higher exposure to a larger retail customer base, such as National Bank and Piraeus Bank, to record stronger net interest income and pre-tax profits, supported by lower pass-through of ECB interest rate hikes to deposit rates (beta).
GS estimates that systemic banks’ net interest margins will peak in the current third quarter at 3.71%, then gradually decline amid continued deposit repricing in 2024, which will intensify further when the tapering cycle of ECB interest rates begins from the fourth quarter of next year.
As it calculates, margins will be 3.58% in 2023 as a whole, 3.31% in 2024 and 3.12% in 2025.
Net interest income for the entire industry is expected to be 8 billion euros this year, €7.6 billion in 2024 and €7.5 billion in 2025.
