Pondering the new electoral landscape
After the crash and ahead of polls in May, party staffs seeking to interpret voter outlook
With May general elections looming, political party staffs are doing their utmost to diagnose the unfolding political landscape in the aftermath of the deadly train collision in northern Greece on February 28.
The dominant question is whether the anger that is pervading society will take on the dimension of an anti-systemic current while pollsters are already feeling the brunt of people’s rage. “They are hanging up on us,” one of them told Kathimerini. Another question is what implications the strengthening of the small parties will have for ruling New Democracy’s quest to form a single-party government and whether the opposition will be able to benefit, even partially, from the government’s attrition. And what’s more, will the crash monopolize the electoral debate?
The answers will materialize in the next two months, with opposition parties expected to question the overall managerial competence of the Mitsotakis administration.
Therefore, the question is how effective the government will be in convincing the electorate that despite the failures in the train crash, significant progress has been made in modernizing the state in the past four years. Another factor will be whether the debate will extend to areas where ND appears to have a comparative advantage over SYRIZA, such as the economy, national issues and security.
The anger over the failures of successive governments to modernize the Greek railway will no doubt also impact SYRIZA, which ran the country in 2015-19. With this in mind, it is unlikely the leftist party will be able to make substantial electoral gains. This may also hold true, albeit to a lesser extent, for PASOK.
The prevailing anger and anti-systemic atmosphere is also seen as a factor, but not to the point where it could have the impact it did during the financial crisis. Government officials note it will be difficult to see a “repeat of 2012.” Back then, they add, people saw their economic status completely overturned, while now any reaction, although justified, is mainly emotional.
Analysts predict the three smaller parties and possibly PASOK will increase their percentages in the first polls in May, to be held with a system of simple proportional representation. However, the prospect now of MeRA25 crossing the 3% threshold is of broader significance, because it implies raising the bar for ND to form a single-party government.
