Undecideds, voter mobilization seen as key
As election period enters final stretch, survey highlights pivotal factors in determining the outcome
With 10 days to go before the election, the rallying of the respective bases of SYRIZA and PASOK and the undecided voters are the factors that will play a pivotal role regarding the percentages the two parties will get and the final percentage that front-runner New Democracy can achieve.
According to an opinion poll by Pulse on behalf of Skai TV, which was presented on Tuesday evening, conservative ND is rallying its base at a rate of 91% while showing an influx of voters from other parties at a rate of 4%.
Leftist SYRIZA’s voter mobilization was measured at 80% with inflows reaching 3%. Center-left PASOK’s was 77%, recording inflows of 3%.
The poll also confirmed ND’s predominance, as voting intentions, based on projected valid votes, gave it 39%, which is 21 percentage points higher than that for SYRIZA at 18%.
What’s more, the poll predicts a seven-party Parliament with PASOK on 11.5%, communist KKE on 6.5%, Sailing for Freedom (Plefsi Eleftherias) on 4%, and nationalist Greek Solution and ultra-conservative Niki with 3.5% each. The undecideds were counted at 8%.
Based on the estimated distribution of undecided voters, ND would get a share of 42%, ahead of SYRIZA with 19.5% and PASOK on 12%, KKE (7%), Sailing for Freedom (4.5%), with Greek Solution and Niki getting 4% each. Based on these percentages, the seat allocation scenario gives 163 seats to ND, 52 seats to SYRIZA, 32 to PASOK, 19 to KKE, 12 to Plevsi Eleftherias and 11 seats each to Greek Solution and Niki.
Interestingly, the respondents’ answer to the question of whether they will go to vote showed that 82% said, “Definitely yes,” and a further 10% said, “Probably yes.” Overall, a total of 92% said they would go to the polls.
“Despite the fact that the second election is at the end of June and despite the fact that the result of the first ballot could be seen as favoring abstention because of the large margin, there does not seem to be such a mood among voters. On the contrary, they seem inclined to complete what they started by going to vote the first time,” said Pulse’s Director-General Giorgos Arapoglou.
Tellingly, 73% of respondents say they are considering voting for the same party they voted for on May 21 and a further 14% say they are considering voting for another party.
As for the day after, if a one-party government does not emerge, 39% said that a coalition government should be sought and if that does not work, a new election.
