Three milestones before The Hague
Pivotal period ahead as Athens, Ankara explore possibility of recourse to international court
Greek-Turkish relations are returning to the forefront having been shaped by the meeting between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Vilnius and the decision to explore the possibility of referring the major dispute with Ankara, namely the delimitation of the continental shelf and EEZ, to the international court at The Hague.
Considering that Mitsotakis ad Erdogan will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in mid-September and that their foreign ministers, George Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan, will meet before then, the agendas of Athens and Ankara will be centered around three major milestones that will determine whether Vilnius will be a landmark in bilateral relations or yet another missed opportunity to resolve existing disputes.
These are the agenda with which the two countries could possibly go to The Hague, an agreement on the terms under which to resort to the international court, and the timetable within which discussions should be concluded, either with a positive or negative outcome.
Athens will reportedly be open to dialogue regarding the three aforementioned issues but also has specific “red lines,” which is something that has already been communicated to Turkey.
Regarding the agenda, for Athens the only issue that can be referred to The Hague is that of the delimitation of the continental shelf and exclusive economic zone, and not others that Ankara raises from time to time.
As regards the content of an agreement to resort to The Hague, Athens will not accept a discussion of sovereignty or demilitarization of the islands as such. Also, both sides will have to agree on how the court will rule, i.e. on the basis of the Law of the Sea
The third issue is the timing. The prevailing view in Athens and Ankara is that the existing momentum should be exploited, given that both Mitsotakis and Erdogan have fresh mandates after the recent elections in both countries. The bottom line is that, either positively or negatively, The Hague issue should be closed by early 2024.
Moreover, Mitsotakis and Erdogan will not only meet in New York next month, but also at the High-Level Cooperation Council between Greece and Turkey in Thessaloniki later this year.
