The war in Ukraine is at a dangerous impasse
The war in Ukraine has entered a very dangerous phase. Russian President Vladimir Putin is feeling squeezed, which is not good for anyone. The game he has been playing with the West for years had worked pretty well, as he won one “game” after another. He was absolutely right to underestimate the West’s reaction and assume that it would do nothing if Russia invaded Ukraine. But he was wrong. He overestimated his own capabilities and was surprised by the reaction of the Ukrainians, as well as the US and Europe.
On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emerged as a tough but also stubborn player. He succeeded in the role of a leader who fights real battles but also communicates successfully, on a global level. But how can he step into the role of leader who will make the inevitable and necessary compromise at the end? No conflict is resolved without mutual concessions. And no sane person can expect Putin to commit political suicide, or worse, by returning to the borders of last February.
Western leaders are not exactly sure how to handle the developing war. Europeans are afraid of political developments in their countries. Inflation and the fact that the images of horror have become routine have led to war fatigue. There are European leaders who would negotiate with Putin if it weren’t for America’s unambiguous stance. But it is clear that US President Joe Biden himself has reached his limits, realizing that the war is costing him politically, but without being able to back down or put pressure on the Ukrainian leader.
The plot thickens. Unexplained cyberattacks and sabotage of all kinds are increasing in Europe. The Russians are now directly accusing the British of active complicity in Ukrainian special operations. Everyone seems to be sleepwalking through this crisis recalling past historical incidents where such inactivity led to great tragedies. The most likely scenario right now is for the war to continue for many more months, perhaps until the end of 2023. But there is now the risk that any extreme action by one side or the other or an accident could lead to a sudden escalation of violence. This escalation could take the most dangerous form within a short period of time.
It is obviously in everyone’s best interest that this war ends soon without any of the two sides being able to celebrate a complete victory. But how can this be done with two leaders who are inextricably linked to their legend?
