Repercussions from the Middle East
Saturday’s events in the Middle East will be analyzed for decades to come by experts in security issues and pundits. Something obviously went very wrong with the Israeli security services, which failed to prevent and promptly respond to the unprecedented terrorist attack by Hamas. There was no shortage of people who believed that Israel’s deep domestic crisis and polarization would have an impact on its security. It may even have had a catalytic role in developments but this is something we won’t know for some time, even though the public pressure on the government for answers will be enormous.
All the tragedy and brutality unfolding in the area will also have enormous geopolitical consequences. The United States has been trying to disengage from the Middle East for some time, in order to focus on Asia and China. It knows that it doesn’t have the resources or forces to deal with a wide range of military obligations. Russian President Vladimir Putin changed Washington’s plans by invading Ukraine and got the US embroiled in Europe again.
Just a few days ago, in fact, the White House’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, stated that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” Hamas’ attack refuted that claim and forced America to return to the Middle East – and rapidly too. President Joe Biden’s move to send naval and air force support to Israel is unprecedented and will have significant reverberations. These will also impact Greece, which took a very clear position in Israel’s favor. Turkey will find itself in a difficult position and the course of developments is likely to expose the fact that the US and the West more generally cannot rely on Turkey when faced with this enormous crisis.
The biggest reverberation, however, will be if Israel and, by extension, the United States, is led into a conflict with Iran. This is something the deep states in Israel and the US do not want at all, but we have already seen how political pressure and the unfolding of events can often dictate developments, as was the case with Iraq in the aftermath of 9/11.
Saturday’s events showed us something else, too: that warfare has changed completely in the past few years. The unorthodox and unexpected has become the norm. And this is something we need to examine very carefully – and with a very open mind – here in Greece.
