Middle East dangers multiply
The Middle East is even more dangerous today than it was a few weeks ago. The war between Israel and Hamas has become a war of survival both for Israel and the Palestinians. The former needs to destroy Hamas and regain the deterrent power that it lost on October 7, whereas thousands of Palestinians are being killed and Gaza is being destroyed. For Israel (especially for its current government), only absolute military victory will do – the release of all the hostages in Gaza and the end of Hamas. For Hamas, the aim is to ride out the storm, knowing that the more the people suffer, the more Israel will be isolated in the international community, and the more its own image as sole representative of the Palestinians will be burnished. Clearly, a more careful Israeli strategy that would isolate Hamas and not force Israel to defend itself on the international scene would be preferable. The process which South Africa began at the International Court of Justice earlier this month, where it is charging Israel with genocide, and the strengthening of Iran, are results of the strategy which complicate matters for Israel and its allies.
A more careful Israeli strategy that would isolate Hamas and not force Israel to defend itself on the international scene would be preferable
The fact that Israel does not seek to get on the good side of international public opinion is the result of several factors. Among these, it does not expect to gain anything by softening its position – on the contrary, this would show weakness, which would encourage its enemies; it believes that its allies will not abandon it, however it behaves, because its existence serves their interests too. For Israel, only victory can justify the carnage in Gaza. It does not have the luxury to back down, only the motive to keep pushing.
This is where the weakness in the country’s strategy is compounded: The behavior of the Netanyahu government is causing ever greater problems for the country’s friends while strengthening its enemies. We see this when a nominally neutral country (albeit blind to Russian crimes) takes Israel to the International Court. We see it when the United States and Britain become embroiled in hostilities with Yemen’s pro-Iranian Houthi militia, as they, like Hamas, present each strike against them as proof that they are the genuine allies of the Palestinians and enemies of Western imperialism. In this way, they strengthen their position against their rivals in Yemen’s civil war, they embarrass other Arab countries which have not attacked Israel or its allies, and they increase Tehran’s influence.
With all this, the leeway for errors is reduced, and chances rise for Iran’s direct military involvement in the region.
