Overshoot in 2023 budget takings
Tax revenues and the primary result of the budget in January and February exceeded the target, but this is largely counted in the 2023 budget, per the Finance Ministry. Therefore, for 2024, there is currently no significant fiscal space for benefits.
It is no coincidence that this week Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis ruled out the possibility of giving an Easter handout this year, despite the upcoming European elections. Containment of potential intentions for benefits is also dictated by the projected downward revision of the growth rate. The government has based the budget on a forecast for GDP growth of 2.9%, but all organizations and banks put it below 2.5%, especially after ELSTAT’s announcement of a 2% rate in 2023, against a government forecast for 2.4%.
With lower-than-budgeted GDP, tax revenues are also likely to decline, although it is still too early for safe estimates. However, the ministry is not worried about achieving the target of a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP this year or an increase in net primary expenditure of 2.6% compared to 2023. Provisional data of the budget execution showed a primary surplus of 3.4 billion euros against a target for €1.98 billion.
