Parties setting out electoral goals
First ballot expected on April 9 and second under the new electoral law on May 14 or 21
With elections around the corner, Greece’s political parties are tailoring their strategies on the basis that the outcome of the first ballot, which will adhere to the simple proportional representation, will have a catalytic effect on the second elections with the new electoral law.
Barring extraordinary events in the next two months, reports indicate that Parliament will be dissolved on March 3 or 10 and elections will be called. The first election will be held on April 9. The second, under the new electoral law, on May 14 or 21. Political developments in Ankara will also play a role in the final decisions of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
According to estimates, the prevalent scenario is that the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey will be held on May 14, from which no winner is expected to emerge. The country will thus head for a runoff election a week later, and the possibility cannot be excluded that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may make some “aggressive” moves in the field of Greek-Turkish relations to increase his ratings.
Ruling New Democracy is aiming to garner more than 33% in the first election. The rationale is that if it achieves this, then the goal of 37% or more in the second elections, which will secure it single-party rule, will become more feasible given the expected political polarization and the increased mobilization of voters.
SYRIZA’s declared goal is to take first place in the simple proportional representation contest, so that it can move to form a progressive government without resorting to a second ballot. This goal appears remote based on current opinion surveys. However, it has been asserted that even a defeat by a margin of 1-2% in the simple proportional representation ballot would constitute a positive for SYRIZA as it would reverse the image of ND’s political dominance. At the same time it would increase the pressure on the parties that move on the fringes of SYRIZA, for example PASOK toward the center and MeRA25 toward the left.
PASOK aims to exceed 12% in the simple proportional representation ballot, which will mean a rise of at least 50% compared to the 8.1% it garnered in 2019. In this case, PASOK will be boosted as it is considered certain that ND and SYRIZA will garner smaller percentages than in previous elections.
