Role of undecided voters pivotal
Latest poll shows that chances the May 21 elections will lead to a government remain remote
Undecided voters are expected to play a key role in the elections on May 21 as their percentage remains high, according to the results of the new nationwide poll conducted by the Pulse company for Skai TV.
More specifically, the survey, which was was carried out on, a sample of 1107 voters between March 30 and April 3, showed that the percentage of undecided voters was 11.5%.
If the blank/spoilt vote and abstentions, which total 5%, are added, there is a “gray zone” of some 16.5%, compared to the corresponding 17.5% recorded in the previous survey by the same company (March 13-15).
The new poll also reveals two particularly interesting facts. Firstly, that small parties are showing resilience despite the climate of polarization that has already emerged. And, secondly, the possibility of calling new elections remains strong, as the chances of polls leading to a single-party government or the formation of a coalition government seem remote.
Projections regarding voting intentions give ruling New Democracy (ND) a 31% share (in the previous poll it was 30%), ahead of leftist SYRIZA with 26%, center-left PASOK (10%), communist KKE (6%), and nationalist Greek Solution and radical leftist MeRA 25 with 4% each. The extreme right-wing movement of jailed former Golden Dawn member Ilias Kasidiaris got 3.5%.
Other smaller parties make a cumulative total of 4 percent. According to the scenario of a proportional distribution of undecided voters, Pulse estimates that the percentages are as follows: ND 35%, SYRIZA 29.5%, PASOK 11.5%, KKE 6.5%, Greek Solution and MeRA25 4.5% each, with Kasidiaris’ party reaching 4% and all other small parties 4.5%.
Based on this, the seats in a six-party parliament that will emerge from the polls on May 21 (with a percentage of the remaining parties that are excluded amounting to 8.5% in total) are distributed as follows: ND 115 MPs, SYRIZA 97, PASOK 37, KKE 21, while Greek Solution and MeRA 25 would get 15 MPs each.
To the extent that such a prediction is confirmed on the night of the election, it appears that on the one hand the numbers for a “progressive coalition government” promoted by SYRIZA will not add up. On the other hand, an ND-PASOK coalition government will have a marginal majority and thus will not be considered stable and viable in the long term.
