Greeks buy fewer new-builds
In the next two years the Greek-owned fleet is likely to shrink, halting its development course, Petrofin Research forecast in its annual report regarding the course of Greek shipping in 2022.
According to the specialized shipping research company, “the impact of the new environmental regulations is now very strong and imminent, which creates significant uncertainty for shipowners.” In the first half of the year the Greek order book fell by 20%, although 34% of the ships on order are with dual fuel combustion technologies (e.g. marine oil and LNG or some other alternative fuel).
The reduction of new investments in newly built ships translates into fewer deliveries in the coming years and therefore also a limitation on the size of the fleet. In this context, Petrofin estimates that the Greek-owned fleet is going to shrink in the next two years, before starting to return to a growth trajectory from 2025. Then it is estimated that the number of new ship deliveries will increase, while purchases of used ships will also grow, outnumbering sales.
In this context, the company reports that Chinese shipping has begun to reduce its distance from Greece, now threatening the latter’s primacy. This is a trend consolidated in recent years, also recorded in 2022, when the Greek-owned fleet stood at 465.1 million dwt (transport capacity), compared to China’s 360 million dwt. However, based on Clarkson’s data, in terms of gross tonnage, the Greek-owned fleet is now very close to the Chinese one. The latter reached 240 million tons in 2022, an annual increase of 6.15%, while the Greek fleet increased by only 1.37% to 251 million tons. In fact, at the end of June 2023, Chinese ships increased to 247.1 million tons, while Greek ships fell slightly to 248.3 million tons.
According to Petrofin, “given China’s global economic power and its huge commercial demands, which also shape the needs for a large domestic fleet, it is not likely that Greece will retain the lead forever. Despite all this, Greece remains for now at the top of the shipping industry.”
