Battle for the undecided in final stretch
Latest opinion polls place those voters who have yet to make their minds up at around 8%
With the election race entering the final stretch, political party staff have turned their attention to the race for the so-called new undecided voters – which, according to the latest polls, amount to roughly 7%-8% of the total – and to those who may abstain altogether.
What appears clear is that the parties do not expect any substantial changes in the choices made by voters compared to the results of May 21. In the latest poll by Pulse for Skai, New Democracy would get 39% with a lead of 21 percentage points over SYRIZA. The conservatives now have their sights locked on the 40% threshold, which would be enough to secure a “safe” majority and one-party government
However, how the undecideds will move and to whose benefit the abstention will work are of critical political importance, as they are expected to have a significant impact on the final percentage of the New Democracy party and the size of its parliamentary majority.
What will also be pivotal are the correlations within the center-left, whether SYRIZA “breaks away” the from 20% it received in the first elections and widens the gap with PASOK, or if it moves in the opposite direction.
Another decisive factor for the final outcome of the elections will be the number of small parties that will cross the 3% threshold and enter the new Parliament. The more of them there are, the more New Democracy’s parliamentary power will be reduced.
As for the undecided voters, the latest public opinion polls suggest that they do not have a single “provenance.” One-third of the 8% of undecided, i.e. about 2.5%-2.7%, come from the three largest parties – New Democracy, SYRIZA and PASOK – while the rest are drawn from the smaller political formations.
Indeed, a significant part of them are from parties that have scored very low percentages and have either withdrawn from the electoral battle or have no hope of parliamentary representation.
Tellingly, a survey by Alco (for Alpha) suggests that of the current undecided pool only 14% had voted in the May 21 elections for New Democracy. Another 6% voted for SYRIZA and 7% for PASOK. This also suggests that the opportunity to garner votes from the pool of undecided voters, which could result in significant changes in the correlations that arose between the three parties on 21 May, is quite limited and likely favor New Democracy.
