With the government of conservative leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis entering its third year, the country is expected from July onward to move into a pre-election period, which has informally already started with the completion of all the parties’ congresses.
Greek electoral law states the next elections will be with proportional representation, which means that a hung parliament is likely. If that is the case, a new election will be held with an enhanced majority or bonus system which will allow the winning party to win outright and form a single-party government.
Whenever Mitsotakis decides to lead the country to elections, the government and the ruling New Democracy party machinery have already begun work to rally the party base.
Basically ND wants to make a positive showing in the first election and use that momentum to win the second election – which, at the moment, seems the most probable scenario – and secure a single-party government.
For this reason, ND does not want the first election to be portrayed to the electorate as an intermediate ballot as this could lead to a form of complacency which could jeopardize the goal of single-party rule.
With this in mind, the party mechanism is striving to get the message across that the first poll will be pivotal for the second election as it will shape the political correlations.
The ultimate goal is for ND to secure around 33-34% in the first election, so that along with a strong party base showing and the polarization of the second election, the way will be paved to form a single-party government.
The final percentage that ND will need to garner to win outright in the second election will also hinge on the parties that will remain out of Parliament.
According to estimates, ND will need to secure 37.5% or more in the second election to form a single-party government.